SportLine simulate the MLB season 10,000 times and warns of potential busts
With the 2019 Fantasy baseball drafts underway and pitchers catchers already reported for training camp. The 2019 Fantasy baseball season is right around the corner and the owners everywhere are wondering how strange the off-season might impact their season. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Dallas Keuchel are just a few high profiled free-agents that has not been signed yet. There will be a dozen of Fantasy relevant players landing on new teams in the coming weeks, of course, as Fantasy baseball players research to their upcoming drafts. One key is to always avoid the busts that can ruin your season. Steering clear of players that inflated stats or sketchy injury histories are crucial, and the 2019 Fantasy baseball busts that will cause you nightmares.
Last year, their model warned that Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dylan Bundy was being overvalued. Bundy was the no. 40 starting pitcher selected on the average CBS Sports leagues, but No. 68 thanks to a sky-high 5.45 ERA. The team at SportsLine was all over Bundy as one of the biggest busts in Fantasy baseball from the start. Their model had him listed much lower than expert consensus Fantasy baseball rankings, and anyone who listened to their advice was well positioned for a league title.
Their model was powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. That same group is sharing the 2019 Fantasy Baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy Baseball sleepers, breakout and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for the league on many major sites, and are updated many times a day. Any time an injury occurs or there’s a change on the depth chart, the team updates its rankings on SportsLine.
In fact, when it comes to ranking players in Fantasy Football, SportLine’s Projection beats the human experts last season when they were big differences in the rankings. The model is the closest to the hole overall, meaning it best pinpoint where every player would finish each week. That could be the difference between winning and going home empty-handed.
One huge bust that SportsLine is calling this season is St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty. Flaherty went 8-9 last season with an ERA of 3.34 while striking out 182 batters in 151 innings as a 22-year-old. When such a young player enjoys that kind of success in the major leagues, it’s natural to assume that the best is yet to come.
However, they dig a little deeper into Flaherty’s numbers there a few worrisome indicators. For starters, Flaherty benefited from an extremely low BABIP of .257 in 2018. Even with Flaherty’s impressive stuff to induce weak contact, that number should stabilize at around .300 for his career and there’s also reason to be concerned that the strikeout numbers are inflated.
In 2015, 2016, and 2017 while in the minors, Flaherty struck out fewer than nine batters per nine innings and he would end up striking out 10.85 batters per nine innings last season in the Majors. If there is any regression there, it definitely takes some juice out of his Fantasy relevant, but that might not live up to his ADP as the No. 20 pitcher off the board on average. SportsLine projects him to finish outside the top 40 for his position in 2019.
Another player that SportsLine’s Fantasy baseball rankings 2019 are fading is Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo.
Castillo is currently the No. 30 starting pitcher off the board in the standard leagues. However, SportsLine Fantasy Baseball rankings projected him to finish as just the No. 85 starting pitcher.
That’s because there are a number peripherals to suggest that what we saw in 2018 was more in line with who he actually is as a pitcher than an impressive rookie year. In 98.1 innings in 2017, Castillo had a 3.12 ERA and struck out 9.87 batters per nine innings. He did all that while benefiting from an extraordinarily low BABIP of .247 (.300 is average).
Last season, that BABIP rose to .282 and the effects were dramatic, as Castillo’s ERA fell to 4.30. Even worst, he induced far fewer ground balls and saw his home run rate skyrocket from 1.11 per nine innings to 1.49, while striking out 8.75 batters per nine innings. Anyone drafts Castillo in the top 100 is hoping that revert back to his rookie season form, but there is a lot in his numbers to suggest that will happen.
SportsLine is also predicting one of the No. 1 consensus player at his position to struggle mightily in 2019 and finish outside the top five. You will want to avoid drafting him with the early pick, as that could be the difference between winning and losing in your league.
I saw that they put Dylan Bundy on the bust list. The problem with Orioles were not the starting pitchers, it was the pitchers in the middle. I’m talking about the pitchers that come in sixth or seventh innings. They allow the most points. How can a pitcher score about 30 or 35 FPs (fantasy points) and still lose 7 to 5 or 10 to 6 something like that? It’s the pitchers that come in during the sixth or seventh inning. The team would score more than five or six runs during that time. It looks bad for the starting pitcher because he won’t get the win. Sometimes, he’ll get the lose even though he does well in the game.
Orioles is my favorite baseball team. That’s why I defended Dylan Bundy. Dylan Bundy has had good fantasy numbers in the last two seasons. It looks bad on him because when the manager takes him out around the fifth or sixth inning, the other team would score lots of runs after he’s out of the game. The offense does not really help him either. Some of the starting pitchers look bad because of what the last pitchers allows lots of runs and the offense don’t have many hits and runs.