Fantasy Baseball Picks: Overrated, underrated and safest picks in Rounds 4-6
Using the mix of the average draft position (ADP) and staff rankings that creates a composite score among three analysts. They will present the top 100 picks in the Fantasy Baseball draft.
By breaking down the increments of 10 picks at a time to highlight the safest bet, underrated, and overrated players, you will be sure you can come out with a more stimulating draft. While unexpected twists and turns develop in any draft, walking in prepared is the best way you can come out with one of the most successful drafts. These picks can determine winning or coming home empty-handed.
Safest Bet: Anthony Rizzo – ADP 33, Staff Composite Ranking: 33
To me, Rizzo is a very safe bet. He’s a consistent source of left-handed power in a contending Chicago Cubs lineup. Rizzo had 30 plus home runs streak broken last season with 25. He has hit 100 plus running base in (RBIs) for the last four seasons and had 80 strikeouts in 566 at-bats (ABs) last season. He’s been durable the last four seasons, appearing in 150 games in each of those years. He’s been a most valuable player (MVP) candidate every year since 2014 and at 29 years old, he is still solid at first base (1B) in fantasy as they come.
I usually pick him as my first baseman if I don’t have Freddie Freeman on my team or if he’s not playing. If I need a utility player if I already have a first baseman, Anthony Rizzo is usually in that position.
Underrated: Carlos Correa – ADP 36, Staff Composite Ranking: 36
Thanks to a couple of injuries shorten seasons and entirely underwhelming 2018, Correa’s name has been buried under other’s enticing young talents in baseball. Correa is turning 25 this season and was once compared to Alex Rodriguez as a prospect. He hit in the heart of the lineup on this world series contender team, he is going to be in the bill of health going into the 2019 season. I fully expect that Correa to be back to the form he had in 2016 and 2017 if he stays healthy. If he does then his ADP is going to be a steal.
I agree 100%. Correa was on my DFS team a lot in 2016 and 2017. Last season he was not on my team as much because he was injured majority of the season. If he gets back to form to where he was a few years ago, he’ll lots FPs for you. He gets on base lots of times.
Overrated: Rhys Hoskins – ADP 39, Staff Composite Ranking: 37
I’m not ready to buy into Rhys yet. The power is definitely there, and he should continue to be a perennial home run hitter especially with Brice Harper now there. I think they will be more RBIs with Harper in the lineup. I hope that he has fewer strikeouts. In fact, he had 35 strikeouts in 98 plate appearances (PAs) 35.7% in close and late situations in 2018. For the point of reference, the league is 22.2%. He is also bad when it comes to facing left-handed pitchers: .186 batting average (BA), 9 home runs (HRs), 385 slugging percentage (SLG) against left-handed pitchers (LHP). He has a .266 BA, 43 HR, .564 SLG against right-handed pitchers (RHP). Hoskins has a lot to offer at the age of 25, but give me Khris Davis or Cody Bellinger at a cheaper price.
Rhys Hoskins is a pretty good pick up in daily fantasy sports (DFS). I would sometimes pick him. He is great at hitting home runs. In FanDuel, if a player hits a home run, he’ll get 18.7 fantasy points (FPs) if no one else is on base. If some are on base, he’ll get an RBI for that and he’ll get points for that as well. It would be good if Brice Harper is on base before he goes up to bat.
Safest bet: Khris Davis – ADP 41, Staff Composite Ranking: 40
I debated with this choice over and over. Khrush is as a good bet to hit multiple home runs in a game as is to get five strikeouts. No one wants the best slugger on their lineup to strikeout about two times a night, but with Davis that does not matter. What matters is what he does well. In the last three seasons, he hit 42, 43, and 48 home runs and drove in over 100 runs in each season in that span. His slugging percentage has not been below .500 since 2014. Going to those strikeouts if automatically hitting 40 or 50 home runs and getting 100 RBIs on a consistent basis. It a safe bet that Khris Davis will perform with these same number this season at his usual ADP. Davis hit at .247 in the last four seasons.
I had Khris Davis on my everyday fantasy team last season a lot. He helps you win your fantasy. If I don’t pick him on my regular fantasy, I definitely pick him on my late night fantasy since he plays for Oakland Athletics (A’s).
Underrated: Carlos Carrasco – ADP 45, Staff Composite 36
Why isn’t this guy getting more love in the fantasy baseball leagues? A 45th ADP? That’s a steal in my book. Injuries in previous seasons aside, Carrasco has been one of best fantasy starters in the past two years. Aside from injuries or father time he should remain to stay that way. He might not have a microscopic earned run average (ERA) like a few of his arm drafted above him, but I’ll take 10.8 strikeouts (Ks) per 9 innings any day of the week (ratio in 2018). Drafters who missed out on this inhuman hurler of the first couple rounds shouldn’t feel bad adding him to your lineup.
This sound like a guy I need to look at this year for my daily fantasy roster.
Overrated: Clayton Kershaw – ADP 50, Staff Composite Ranking: 127
This one hurt. I mean, you can see the contrast between ADP, which went above 50 after this writing, but still a huge gap from the expert’s rankings. I really like Kershaw, so put him in the overrated column was tough, but I cannot ignore the obvious. He was hurt during the 2018 season. Something is wrong with one of the best pitcher in baseball history. He’s nagged by chronic back issues, now he is suffering from a shoulder injury that’s holding him back during spring training. His strikeouts 155 and average velocity 90.9 mph (miles per hour) were down immensely from his 2017 numbers (202 K, and 93 mph respectively). He hasn’t thrown over 200 innings since 2015. If he’s healthy he will put up some spectacular numbers in pitching, but he is not in the Scherzer, Sale, or deGrom realm as a fantasy starter.
I picked Kershaw a lot in 2017. I didn’t pick him as much in 2018 because he had injury problems. I have to see what the future holds for Kershaw. I have to look at his number in the previous two or three games before for me to determine if I’m going to use him as my fantasy pitcher or not. I also have to see the price. Kershaw is one of my favorite pitcher in the league unless my Orioles are playing. I say that all of these players I spoke about on this list. I usually pick the pitcher from my favorite team, which is the Orioles.
Safest bet: Lorenzo Cain – ADP 53, Staff Composite Ranking: 45
This was a tough pick because we are in the part of the draft that you start to find more and more question marks inside these players profiles. Will Joey Votto’s power continues to dwindle? Did we see the best of Eugenio Suarez in 2018? What will Gleyber Torres offer in year 2? Was Trevor Bauer’s 2018 a fluke, you get the point? A man with a few questions is how can you not love Lorenzo Cain? He had admirable numbers in each of the scoring categories. Home runs in the last five seasons, over 600 ABs in his last two, it’s safe to say that Cain is healthy.
He’ll turn 33 years old early in the season, even though he’s in his prime, Cain is safely surrounded by a powerful Milwaukee Brewers lineup and can offer categorical success when he is healthy.
I haven’t put Lorenzo Cain on my fantasy in the last couple years, but when he is on my team, he usually has success. He’s a good prospect for your team.
Underrated: Jose Abreu – ADP 58, Staff Composite Ranking: 48
Coming up on a down year for 32-year-old Jose Abreu, cleaning up for a Chicago White Sox team waiting for their prospect to come around and seeing his on-base plus slugging (OPS) falls from .906 in 2017 to .798 in 2018, it can be easily said that Abreu’s best seasons are behind him. Upon closer inspection, one can see that his less-than-great 2018 was more fluky than signal. You can’t ignore that the two freak injuries that Abreu dealt with last season affected his play. We’re talking about a guy who was a consistent 30 HR and 100 RBI guys who play 150 games a year in the Major Leagues until 2018 when he got hurt.
It might be an easy way out that he was hurt is the reason why he was not playing up to his ability, but if he is healthy this would be a steal if you snag him up in this round.
I did not pick this man that much in 2018 because he was hurt. If he’s healthy, I might take him on my daily fantasy. I have to wait a couple of games to see how his numbers are to determine if I pick up. He might be a utility player, but they might be a very small possibility that I’ll pick as a positional player.
Overrated: Edwin Diaz – ADP 53, Staff Composite Ranking: 62
I’m not drafting a closer this early, but again, that’s just me. I’m quick to punt on saves (very often to my detriment). I believe that you can find another source of saves later on without sacrificing at another position asset.
When Diaz is on, he’s arguably one of the best closers in the game. I am not taking a closer at this ADP, not when I can get someone like Kirby Yates (currently 111 ADP) or Jose Leclerc (currently 125 ADP) later on. This isn’t to say that anyone else is on the same level as Diaz as a closer, but there is too much talent on the draft board at positions to take Diaz as high as 53rd, especially when I mentioned before Treinen is going 12 spots cheaper. Again, if you value closers strongly, then you would disagree with me on this one and that’s totally fine.
When it comes to pitchers, I never take closers. I always go for the starters because most likely he’ll play 5 or 6 innings. The closers usually play the last 2 or 3 innings. That is fewer fantasy points than the starts.
As I promised, I gave you part 2 of this safest, overrated and underrated players you should draft. I’m going to be doing my first fantasy team on the 27th of March. The regular season start on March 28th. Players are subject to change. I will tell you my lineup soon as I get to that point.
If you have any questions or comments free to post something on the bottom of this post. Thank you.