Fantasy Baseball Draft: Overrated, underrated, and safest picks in Rounds 7-10
Using a mix of average draft position (ADP) and staff rankings that creates a composite score among three analysts. We present the road map through the first 100 picks to come off the board in the 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft.
I am going to break down these next 10 picks at the time to highlight the safest, underrated, and overrated players. You will come away with a streamlined and less overwhelming way to plot out a successful draft. While unexpected twists and turns developed in any draft, walking in prepared is the best way to come out as a person with a winning competitive squad.
Safest bet: Jean Segura – ADP 63, Staff Composite Ranking: 58
Segura reminds of a Jack of all trades, master of none. For the last six years, Segura has offered a quality in nearly all scoring categories for hitters. Even if he’s not good in one scoring category, he makes it up in all the other areas. He’s not going to give you crazy power numbers, but we have already seen him hit 20 home runs, and even if he doesn’t, he will provide you with 20+ stolen bases at the minimum and his 10.9 strikeout percentage is fourth in the league in 2018. He’s not such a glamorous pick like the other shortstops (SS) ahead of him, but Segura is safe.
I picked Segura a lot in the last few years. He is a safe pick. He’s not too expensive and he’ll put up productive numbers.
Underrated: Daniel Murphy – ADP 69, Staff Composite Ranking: 52
Are we underestimate the effects of Coors Field, or is this a lack of belief in Daniel Murphy? His 2018 season was cut short by a micro-fracture surgery, but we’re still talking about one of the true batting average (BA) darlings left in the game. Colorado’s home field should help him there. Surrounded by the safety of the Rockies lineup, along with 40.1% fly ball rate the last three seasons that will pay dividends for him at Coors. His ADP seems to be too cheap. It all stems from if Murphy can stay healthy, but coming into a season with a clean slate and his profile paired in a new park, that should pay off for fantasy owners.
Daniel Murphy is a good pick up if he is healthy. In 2018, I did not use him much because he was not healthy. This year if I pick him, I’m going to wait until he get’s a couple games in to see what his numbers are. If him numbers are good and he plays consistently then he’ll be on my team.
Overrated: Stephen Strasburg – ADP 65, Staff Composite Ranking 59
I actually think that this is the appropriate ADP for Strasburg. When Strasburg is healthy and his best, he is one of the best pitchers in the game. He only pitched 200 or more innings in a season only once in his career. He started in 30 or more games in a season only twice in his career. Considering that, we are still in just the sixth Round of the draft at this point. I really want to keep my risky pitcher picks to a minimum. I feel more comfortable choosing a hitter with an upside than a pitcher with similar issue that you have to question the pick. I expect many disagreements on here about this one. I’m not going to change your mind in regard to taking him here. Strasburg is offer you ace production when he’s in his mode. The question is that is this a good at his ADP, is that production expected, is it just hope?
Stephen Strasburg is a productive pitcher at this position. I normally pick Max Scherzer from the Washington Nationals as my pitcher. Strasburg is usually not on my team.
Safest bet: Eddie Rosario – ADP 76, Staff Composite Ranking 69
Eddie Rosario will turn 28 in September, and his year-by-year production continues this season the best is yet to come. He’s not exactly a base stealer, but he has the speed to steal 10 bases, or even more. He’s definitely not going to hurt on batting average or home runs. As he matures I’m expecting the walks to increase as well. He won’t give you bad numbers by any means, but with second-tier pitchers to at this stage of the draft, Rosario expect to be a safe option at his position in the outfield. He’s hitting .400 in spring training so far.
Eddie Rosario has been a consistent prospect in the last couple years. I had him on my team quite a few times in the last couple years.
Underrated: Mike Clevinger – ADP 79, Staff Composite Ranking: 77
When healthy, the Cleveland Indians sports one of the best rotations in baseball. The 28-year-old Clevinger has the potential to be at the front of the line. He has gotten better and better from year to year in the majors, and possesses a quality arsenal of breaking pitches with a strong fast ball (he earned first pitch strikes near 70% of the time in 2018). He still has room to grow (he showed the ability to bounce back from struggle, posting a 4.85 ERA in July following up with 2.21 in August and 2.12 in September and October respectively). In 200 innings he had 200 + strikeouts with a solid earning run average (ERA) and walks plus hits per innings pitched (WHIP) are not far-fetched for Clevinger in 2019. That’s excellent production coming off the board in the seventh Round.
I’ve had Mike Clevinger on my fantasy last season if the Orioles were not playing. Again, Orioles is my favorite baseball team I usually pick the pitcher from Baltimore in my fantasy.
Overrated: Adalberto Mondesi – ADP 70, Staff Composite Ranking: 65
Talking about a guy who lives on the edge, Mondesi is a threat especially for the Kansas City Royals to steal 40+ bases. He also has a little bit of power hitting 14 home runs in 2018, but his on base percentage (OBP) barely went over .300 in 2018. It was below in his previous two seasons. He owns a 4% walk rate and a 29.4% strikeout rate, that kind of stuff forces the team that would send him down to the minors. The dual position eligibility, the blazing speed, and electric potential to make him extremely enticing, but the downfall that comes with such bad discipline at the plate is just too much for me. If you cover most of the hitting categories in the early rounds. If you think his plate discipline can get any worst in 2019, snagging Mondesi for his stolen base ability is a slam dunk for you. If you don’t then the negatives will shine over the positives. He will be only 23 years old when the season starts. He has a room for maturity and his numbers will get better as the years comes along.
Mondesi has been on my fantasy team couple times last season. I think he was a cheap pick so I end up keeping him. He sometime performs well. He’s only 23, so there is room for maturity.
Safest bet: Justin Turner – ADP 85, Staff Composite Ranking: 86
Turner might not give you 30 home runs. He’s 34 years old. He’s not as shiny as the other names on this list before him. His injury risk is obviously something you cannot ignore. Turner is not going to hurt you in the hitting categories. The 85th pick and a healthy Corey Seager expect to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup for opening day, you could do a lot worst for a third baseman (3B) at this point of the draft.
I have not put Justin Turner on my fantasy team in the last couple years because he has been injured. When you do put Turner on your team, when healthy he has very productive numbers. In order for me to pick him I have to see how he does in a few games he plays.
Underrated: Nicholas Castellanos – ADP 87, Staff Composite Ranking: 81
Castellanos’ outlook is hampered by two key things, his home park (Comerica was the 21st in park factor runs in 2018) and his team. The Detroit Tigers are in the midst of rebuilding, so it doesn’t help Castellanos with talent he has around him is lacking. If the Tigers continue to blow it, they would trade him to the go-round, hopefully to a better lineup for fantasy purposes. Castellanos has the ability to be a .300-30-100 (.300 BA, 30 HR, and 100 RBI) season. At just 27 years old, he could be an excellent option here.
I don’t think I picked up Nicholas Castellanos too much in 2018. I had some Baltimore Orioles that played his position, but when I do my regular fantasy sometimes I put him on there.
Overrated: Craig Kimbrel – ADP 85, Staff Composite Ranking: 121
It would seem that the drafters know something that we don’t know because this way too early for me in regard to Kimbrel. I am a fan to his knuckle ball curve, which is one of his devastating pitches in all baseball. He’s proven to be an elite closer his entire career. There are too many question marks at his ADP. Which team will land on? What if he on a team that establishes a closer early? Kimbrel’s walk rate is 5.5% in 2017 to 12.6% in 2018 (less glaring, but noteworthy, his strikeout rate fell from 49.6% to an excellent 38.9% in 2018). Kimbrell looked human in the playoffs, I hope he doesn’t carry that into the season this year at age 31. I don’t think this is the right spot for Kimbrel.
Like I said before, I never put closers on my fantasy baseball teams. He will probably only play 2 or 3 innings at the most. I normally choose starter because the usually play up to the fifth or sixth innings depending on his performance during the game.
Safest bet: David Price – ADP 93, Staff Composite Ranking: 87
Price might join the inimitable Scott Pianowski’s “Raul Ibanez All-Stars”. These are boring old veterans who provides solid value at a cheap price. Price’s velocity is down. He’ll give up an occasional home run or two, or have the that disastrous outings. He might not hit the 200 strikeout mark anymore, but at his current ADP, you’re going to get a winning pitcher on the defending champs who can provide an admirable ERA and a solid strikeout (K9) ratio.
David Price is a very good pick up for your fantasy. I picked him when the Orioles were not playing. Even though he is a Boston Red Sox does not mean I’m going to pick him. It all about winning to me and who to put on my team so I can have a winning team. It’s all about putting a winning team together not about what team he’s on. If I worry about if I hate the player or not, then I would not be making any money. Sometimes, I pick players who I don’t like on my teams. I also pick players from teams who I don’t like. To be honest I don’t like any team in Boston or around Boston.
Underrated: Wil Myers – ADP 102, Staff Composite Ranking: 102
Myers is a question mark for the outfield (OF), not that Eric Hosmer has supplanted him at first base for the San Diego Padres. His health is a concern. He probably won’t him hit for average or score as many runs, but he is a possible 20-20 guy in the middle of the 9th round. That would work for me. He already walked four times and stolen two bases in spring training at 19 at-bats (AB).
Wil Myers is a very cheap pick for your lineup. I pick him lots of times in 2018. He’s one of those veterans who is cheap and get decent numbers for you. That determines of you winning and going home empty-handed.
Overrated: Robinson Cano – ADP 93, Staff Composite Ranking: 111
I love Robinson Cano. He has the prettiest swing in baseball. At his current ADP I don’t like it at all. When he’s on and healthy, Cano has been excellent in the hitting department in his entire career (.304/.355/.493 career slash line). A move from one pitcher’s ballpark to another should not affect him, but father time is undefeated at 36 years old. I am willing to wait on Cano especially there is multi position guys like Dee Gordon and Travis Shaw is still available in this draft.
Cano is a very good pick up when healthy. He hits home run. When a player hit a home run with no one on base he scores 18.7 fantasy points (FPs). If there is someone on base then they’ll add another 3.5 FPs. If you have that player on your team then you’ll get point for him being on base, when he scores and for the home run that the player had. You’ll score lots of points just on that.
What I was going to say talking about Robinson Cano, if you get a grand slam, just that one player would get about 29.2 FPs for that one player. If your player hits a grand slam and your player is on base, you’ll also get points for that as well. One time Manny Machado hit a grand slam. Then I had two more players on base that I chose. Manny Machado had the 29.2 FPs. Then I got another 6.4 FPs for the other players scoring. Then I got another 6 FPs for my player getting on base. Put I scored close to 42 FPs just because Manny hit a grand slam. Just that play right there helped me win my fantasy. I lost my voice because I was so excited. I called my mother and a few of my friends. Then I said “Thanks Manny”!!! Do you see how much I miss Manny. 🙁
In case some of you don’t know a grand slam is when a player hits a home run and the bases are loaded. It’s fun watching that little man go into the green. Going into the green means you are winning.