Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Overrated, Underrated and the Safest Picks

Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Overrated, underrated and safest picks in Rounds 1-3.

I’m going to tell you about the top 100 picks in the 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft. I’m going to be breaking it down to 10 picks at a time so you would know the safest picks you want for your draft. Plus who are overrated and underrated players you should pick for your draft? I want you to go into this season with a competitive team to give you a chance to win your fantasy. This draft will determine that you going to win money or come out empty-handed.

Part 1:

Picks 1-10

[Positional Rankings: Top 300 Overall |C|1B|2B|3B|SS|OF|P]

Safest Bet: Mike Trout – ( Average Draft Position) ADP 1, Staff Composite Ranking: 1

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is thIs this a surprise that Mike Trout is the number 1 outfielder (OF) for you draft in the major leagues? He’s been in the top 10 of the players positional player in the last seven seasons (he’s been in the major leagues since 2011). He’s been an all-star since 2012. Since 2012, he finished under .300 (batting average) BA twice (.287 in 2014 and in 2015 he finished .299). He hasn’t hit under 25 home runs since 2011. His (on-base plus slugging) OPS + hasn’t been under 150 since 2011. His OPS hasn’t been under .900 since 2011. He stole double-digit bases since 2011. All of these stats will lead you to lots of fantasy points (FPs).

Basically, Mike Trout has been a fantasy gift since 2011, his rookie season where he only played 40 games that year. At age 27, don’t question it, he’s your pick. If my Orioles are not playing, I would usually pick Mike Trout in my everyday fantasy. Can’t wait until I start making my picks.

Underrated: Max Scherzer – ADP 6, Staff Composite Ranking: 6

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Drafting Max Scherzer in Round 1 isn’t rare in most leagues, it’s expected. The argument is that Max Scherzer deserves to be higher on the draft board. He deserves to be in the top five ADP.

Max finished in the top five in fantasy asset in innings pitched in 2018. He finished in the top five in innings pitched, strikeouts, wins, and walks plus per innings pitched (WHIP) (for pitchers with over 150 IP). He finished at No. 1 value-based ranked pitcher, via Fantasy Pros. Maybe he won’t repeat his beastly 300 strikeouts in 220 and 2/3 innings. Maybe he’ll have a higher WHIP than his low .91 in 2018. Maybe he won’t have as many wins as he had with Brice Harper shipped off to Philadelphia. If his last four seasons are in any indication, Max isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

Overrated: Ronald Acuna Jr. – ADP 10, Staff Composite Ranking: 8

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Maybe he had an excellent rookie year, maybe it was the injury to Francisco Lindor, or maybe it’s his pedigree (Acuna was the No. 2 prospect going into the 2018 season). The youngster is going into this season is slated to come off the board before the end of the first round.

Acuna is truly a gifted player who dominated in the minor league and brought that dominance to the major leagues (.293 BA, 26 HR, .917 OPS in 2018). I expect him to bring success to the fantasy owners that picked in 2019. I would not have him ahead of Jose Altuve or Aaron Judge at the end of the 12 team draft. Don’t underestimate the team’s ability to figure out the young player, as much as I expect Acuna to continue his ascent, I expect him to have a sophomore slump sometime in 2019 (we saw it with the teammate, Ozzie Albies in the second half of last season). That’s why I’ll look elsewhere when it comes to picks between 9th and 12th.

Picks 11-20

Safest bet: Freddie Freeman – ADP 16, Staff Composite Ranking:16

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How can you not love Freddie Freeman? The 29-year-old is a career .293 hitter and usually, the first or second first baseman picked off the Fantasy board. He fills all four categories with above average numbers, and in 2018 he stole career high with 10 stolen bases. His speed has never been his strong suit, but the willingness to run is another thing that comes to Freeman. That adds up fantasy point for player owners.

He already has 2 bombs this spring training. He’s as solid as they come when it comes to a position that doesn’t have too many players giving you big numbers. Last year, I had Freddie Freeman on my fantasy team lots of times as a first baseman (1B).

Underrated: Alex Bregman – ADP 17, Staff Composite Ranking: 14

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I really like Alex Bregman. I had him on my Fantasy team lots of times in 2018. I would take him in the first round of the 15 team league draft. He might not put up the same number as his infield teammate Jose Altuve, but if he has the season he had in 2018, the best is yet to come with Bregman. He put up MVP (most valuable player) type numbers last season, hitting 31 home runs (up from 19 in 2017). He has shown good speed and is one of the most passionate players in the league. He finds himself surrounded by the Judges and the Stantons and the Harpers and the Machados, not to mention the deGroms of the major leagues at his current ADP. Bregman is just years old and he has the potential to stand toe-to-toe with those MLB (Major League Baseball) giants.

Alex Bregman is a good pick for your everyday fantasy. I had him on my team lots of times in 2018.

Overrated: Giancarlo Stanton – ADP 17, Staff Composite Ranking: 19

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Speaking of the MLB giants, the former NL (National League) MVP didn’t have the ideal season in his first year with the New York Yankees. He hit 38 home runs which are not bad, but also have 211 strikeouts in 617 at-bats (AB). Unfortunately, Stanton is one of those guys that is going to suffer from some categories, and at his current ADP, you will find better picks with multi-category guys like a Javier Baez or a Manny Machado to build your team around.

I did not put Stanton on my team that much last season. I felt that he was not as productive with the Yankees as he was with the Miami Marlins.

Picks 21-30

Safest bet: Charlie Blackmon – ADP 24, Staff Composite Ranking: 26

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You got to have a player that plays in Coors Field. I’ve seen Blackmon fall past the second round and I’ve seen him on the top of the second round in the mock draft. Seems like the jury is out on him with opinions. One thing that is not an opinion is that he scored 100 runs in three consecutive seasons, and he’s a legitimate 20-20 threat (he stole 17 bases in 2016 and he stole 43 in 2015). He’s 32 years old, but if he returns to his running ways, he’ll be an even bigger category stuffer worthy of a higher draft pick.

Charles Blackmon was on my daily fantasy team lots of times last season. He’s a pretty good pick up.

Underrated: Javier Baez – ADP 21, Staff Composite Ranking: 18

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It seems to be two schools of thought when it comes to Javier Baez. One size argues that last season – .290 BA (batting average), 34 HR (home runs), 111 RBI (running batters in) was a fluke. Others believe that it’s a sign of a player reaching his prime. I tend to go on that side of the latter.

Lots of Baez’s attraction is that he can play multiple positions on the field, but consider this. Other than the short 2015 season stunted by early struggles, a broken finger, and a death in the family, Baez’s numbers have been growing year by year. He played 160 games last season. At 26 years old, Baez is in him prime position to blow out career highs in 2019. He has to be disciplined at the plate, he has a walk rate of 5% and a strikeout rate of over 25% raises a red flag., but he is still great when he is playing three different positions. He a steal at his current ADP.

I picked this player lots of time as well last season. He’s a good pick up for you.

Overrated: Juan Soto – ADP 30, Staff Composite Ranking: 27

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Juan Soto helped my fantasy teams dramatically in 2018. His overrated designation is more about his ADP than anything else. Soto dominated in the minor leagues and had a historic rookie season, but I would take him ahead of Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole, and even Whit Merrifield. I would not, but it depends on how much I had in the cap. They are plenty of outfield power available at a much cheaper price going forward in most drafts. Soto will have more on his shoulders with Brice Harper being gone. I don’t think Soto is ready to take that spot yet. Soto only slugged just .236 and batted.181 with runners in scoring position after the All-Star break.

Opposing teams will take notice to Soto’s struggles at the plate with off-speed pitches in 2018 (he finished in the bottom 10 on every off-speed pitch and low pitch tracker after the All-Star break), going into his sophomore year. He also does not show the tendency to run (just 14 total stolen bases in both minor and major leagues).

Sorry for pointing out the negatives about Juan Soto’s rookie season, but he is only 20 years old and he is too expensive for me. On the positive note, with Brice Harper going to Philadelphia he probably will have more playing time and he’ll be a regular which is good for your fantasy.

Juan Soto was on my fantasy team a few times and he has put up some good numbers. According to FanDuel, last season he was not that expensive.

Conclusion

I still haven’t put up my Fantasy Baseball team. I’ll do that right before the season starts. FanDuel does daily fantasy for baseball. They will tell you who is playing or not. Hopefully, I can do Part 2 in the near future. There are lots of information to go around. This article is longer than I thought. If you have any questions or comment don’t be afraid to share.

 

 

 

 

 

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